In addition, inflation and the looming specter of a recession are also taking a toll on Utah residents buying power. . Some investors flip houses, others wholesale them. Salt Lake City is the capital and most populous city of Utah, with a population of 200,133, Salt Lake City housing market is somewhat competitive, with listed properties receiving three offers per listing and 24.5% of them selling above the asking price. Lake Powell can drop your jaw around every bend of the gorgeous reservoir with 200-foot cliffs. The states unemployment rate in November was 2.2%. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. Renters have seen a steady, heady increase in rents over the past year, making their window for buying even more narrow. The party was over. Utah hosted the 2002 Winter games, and Utah is looking to once again host these games once again. To ensure a good return on investment, we encourage real estate investors to perform their due diligence and seek out the help of local Utah real estate professionals. If youre looking to buy or sell real estate in Utah, you want to ensure youre working with a real estate agent who can help you navigate the rapidly changing conditions of the local housing markets. While they both agree the market is in the midst of a price correction after two years of runaway demand amid the pandemic housing frenzy, they have differing outlooks for just how deep that price correction will run next year. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. In addition, Utahs median listing price is 36% more than homes across the United States. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above listprice indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. Families flourish in Utah. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! Do not sell or share my personal information. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. However, as the level of Utah housing prices outstripped the national average, the demand is bound to decline as salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as property prices. Why is it taking two weeks, a month, six weeks?. Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. After prices peaked in May, Salt Lake Countys median single family home price hit $650,000. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. If one were to understand what the Utah housing market forecast 2022 is implying here is that renters are facing bigger challenges of acquiring their own properties. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Search for a realtor or service professional, Already have a FastExpert account? By April, mortgage rates had begun shooting up. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. This speedometer reflects the state of the regions real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. As of November 2022, four consecutive 75 bps increases brought mortgage rates over 7%, reaching their highest level since April 2008 and standing over twice higher as the same time last year. Privacy . You can try RealAdvisor home value appraiser, to get the value of your home in Utah. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. Overall, Yun has predicted U.S. home sales to fall by 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and he expects home prices to increase only 0.3%, or essentially flatline. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. Peak-to-trough, with thepeak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. Homes on the market: 11,172. Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. Therefore, with the current small but significant price change, a seller will realize enormous overall growth and equity increase. Hang in there. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. Utahs economy continues to add jobs, but the pace of growth has started to slow. 28.7% of homes sold above the asking price, reaching a median sale price of $525,000, which represents a 7.8% increase in the past year. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. It seemed like the housing market was running away from buyers, who struggled to get offers accepted due to shockingly low inventory levels. Therefore, experts expect that Utah home prices will slow down their staggering growth and may decline in some areas. Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. They can step back and wait for the dust to settle., As a result, Wood predicted price declines that have been tumbling since May will stabilize by the third quarter of 2023, and the annual median sales price for 2023 will likely be within a few percentage points one way or another of 2022., Worst case scenario, Wood added, prices down about 5%; best case scenario, prices equal to 2022.. In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. Dont focus on the loss you may believe you are experiencing if you sell today. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. Half a million people from one state alone. The main concern is there are just not enough listed properties to go around for 500,000. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. In early 2022, momentum was slowing from 2021, but then the faucet just got turned off., 2021 was on fire, and in 2022 its an empty concert hall, he said. The ones who are truly making money in real estate in Utah are the investors. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. Compass announced a third round of layoffs on Thursday, according to The Real Deal. Get your free online home valuation in only 2 minutes! Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. Single Family Rentals Facing Challenges in 2023, January 2023 Mortgage Rates: What to Expect, Existing Home Sales Fall in November 2022. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. Utah will see minor year-over-year price declines in the first and second quarter of 2023, but prices will begin to stabilize by the third and fourth quarter, he said. Eskic said it all comes down to affordability. Windermere Living It would slow, but it wouldnt be stopped like it is now.. Here's your Official 2022 Utah housing Market Forecast in Salt Lake City. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. 27.7% of homes sold above the asking price. However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. (Now) its resetting, its balancing, its coming down.. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. All Rights Reserved, The great housing market reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. The Utah housing markets that are most overvalued are Ogden, Provo, and Salt Lake City. I have moved the needle accordingly. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. 2023 will be tough for sales. The good news for buyers who are prepared to take on high mortgage rates is that they no longer face the fierce competition of early 2022. FastExpert partner and Utah real estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the Utah housing market. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. For September of 2022 Utah saw the median sale price remain flat compared to August and is still up almost 6% from 2021. The impact of the correction on Utahs real estate market should be softened by its robust economy and limited home inventory. Where do we go from here? The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. He is married with 7 children. Significantly higher inventory levels gave buyers a lot more options than they have become accustomed to. But housing costs werent nearly as high back then, Eskic interjected. Heres why, Why are house prices so high? So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. Site Map | FastExpert, inc. 2021. -0.63% home value decrease month over month. This data does not reflect actual moves. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. Park City Data The Utah housing market is amid a major shift. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. Sign up now for a free 7-day trial and get 15% off on your subscription. Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. Dont wait. So from that affordability perspective, I think its going to keep the market from accelerating back to have a more positive price appreciation., Wood said thats a good point, but added the 70s and early 80s saw interest rates that hit as high as 18%. Nationwide, 25% of homebuyers searched to move to a different metro area between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. I dont think thats happened yet.. over year. Historical Utah real estate data and trends are included below the latest update. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. While home prices have decreased about 3% month over month, home prices are up nearly 9% year over year in August. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. 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